Tropical Cyclone Ului

Tropical Cyclone Ului and the Whitsundays

15:15 EST 22nd March, 2010

Ex-Tropical cyclone Ului crossed the coast at Airlie Beach and created havoc during the night. It appears the eye of the storm passed directly overhead, leaving a period of calm of a few hours, before the destructive winds returned. The cyclone passed quickly after that leaving a suprisingly small amount of damage for it's potential.

Reports are still being collated, but we have heard of no reports of damage to vessels inside Abel Point Marina (and this includes most of the commercial sailing and diving fleet). A number of vessels (Possibly up to 5) have been beached on the main beach at Airlie beach including Anaconda II, one of the overnight sailing vessels here. Down at Shute harbour, reports of up to 7 vessel being dragged off their moorings and beached along with Coral Trekker which is also one of the overnight sailing vessels here in the Whitsundays.

Many trees have been knocked over, but there are only a few residences with any significant damage. Power has been cut to most areas during the storm, but reports from residents say they have been very impressed with Ergon Energies response after the cyclone with regards to restoring power. Little more than 24 hours has passed and already power to over half of the area has been restored. Well done to the crew at Ergon Energy.

Supermarkets in Cannonvale had their power restored this morning and were open for trading.

I have received no reports of road closures in and out of Airlie Beach.

That just about wraps up this article, I hope it has been of use to you if you were affected by the cyclone and your travel plans have been affected as well. I know the tourism industry will get back in it's feet very rapidly and we know that the first overnight sailing and diving boat to leave the harbour and restart operations left this morning at 10:30am. The vessel is Whitsunday Drifter and was ready for action again after a herculean effort by the crew and support staff to get her up and running again ASAP. Another well deserved pat on the back for those guys as well.

09:306 EST 21st March, 2010

Cyclone Ului appears to have passed almost directly over Airlie Beach as a Category 3-2 cyclone. Early reports this morning seem to indicate there is very little damage. One source has stated that the vessels secured in Abel Point Marina have had little or no damage. There are reports of up to 3 vessels that remained on moorings being driven ashore near the Airlie Beach Yacht Club. These vessels appear to have suffered significant damage. There have been isolated reports of trees fallen across roads. It is still early morning and the full impact of any damage won't be known for a few hours yet, but it appears on first reports there has been only minor damage to infrastructure.

The current forecast after the passage of Ex-TC Ului is for E/NE 25/33 knots, easing to 15/20 knots by the sunday afternoon. Rain areas, easing to showers.

Monday: Wind: SE/NE 15/20 knots. Sea: 1.7 metres in open waters. Scattered
showers.

Tuesday: Wind: SE/E 15/20 knots, increasing to 20/25 knots by evening.

There is forecast localized flooding along coastal areas, but this should dissipate fairly rapidly.

So it appears Airlie Beach has escaped a disaster and will be open again for tourism on monday !

The current forecast09:30 EST 20th March, 2010

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be 740 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and 920 kilometres east of Townsville
and moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour. The Cyclone is expected to cross the coast north of Proserpine Sunday morning. The current track map shows landfall around the Conway area. Damaging winds of up to 140 km/h are expected along with heavy rain and localized flooding. Roads are likely to become impassable throughout sunday and possibly monday

16:55 EST 19th March, 2010

At 10am EST, Tropical Cyclone Ului was about 515 nautical miles NE of Mackay. The Cyclone is expected to move SW towards the Queensland coast today and WSW on Saturday. The cyclone is expected to make landfall at category 2 and it's tentativley predicted track still brings it directly into the Whitsundays, arriving Sunday.

It is likely that once the cyclone has crossed land, it will dissipate rapidly and weather in the Whitsundays is likely to be back to moderate to fresh winds on monday, the very next day ! Strange how cyclones work eh ? If you live in the Whitsundays, be prepared now.

08:00 EST 19th March, 2010

Cyclone Ului is now about 555 northeast of Mackay. Current track maps are preidcting a landfall around Airlie Beach at around 4am Sunday. The cyclone is now Category 3 and has weakended slightly. The cyclone is still considered to be severe by the BOM. Residents between Yeppoon and Cardwell (Including the Whitsundays) should be taking precautions and preparing for the arrival of Cyclone Ului.

The computer forecast model, is very incosistent at this stage and seems to show the cyclone weakening further before landfall. This is only a computers idea of what might be happening and I would strongly suggest that the experienced eyes and minds of the forecasters at the BOM are a better source of information.

20:20 EST 17th March, 2010

Cyclone Ului is now about 1210 km northeast of Mackay and 1360 km east of Cooktown. It is still slow moving (About 6 k/h) and remains a category 4 cyclone. Forecast models show the cyclone is likely to impact the central Queensland Coast over the weekend. Longer range computer models show the cyclone crossing the Queensland Coast around Mackay on saturday night or sunday morning. Already the Whitsundays has a forecast of winds over 40/60 kts for saturday "depending on the movements of the cyclone". There is no doubt this is a powerful cyclone and that it poses a significant threat to the Whitsundays over the weekend. If you live here, take precautions now and make or activate your emergency plans well in advance of any forecast arrival. Bear in mind having said all of this, cyclones are extremely unpredictable.

08:30 EST 17th March, 2010

Cyclone Ului is still moving slowly southwards at about 4 k/h and is still a category 4 cyclone. It is about 1240 km northeast of Mackay and 1370 km east of Cooktown. The BOM is predicting it will continue tracking southwards for the next day or two, then turn towards the coast and possibly impact the central Queensland coast. Current forecast models show the cyclone crossing the coast just north of Gladstone, although this far ahead it is very hard to be certain of anything. At this stage it is hopefull that the Whitsundays will be spared and return to good weather towards the end of the weekend, although things may change due tot the unpredictability of cyclones in the Coral Sea.

16:30 EST 16th March, 2010

Cyclone Ului is slow moving, but still quite powerful. It is currently located about 1310 km northeast of Mackay and 1420 km east of Cooktown. Nothing much more to add at this point.

10:00 EST 16th March, 2010

Cyclone Ului is about 1330 km northeast of Mackay and 1450 km east of Cooktown. It's currently a category 4 cyclone and packing quite a punch. It is still a long way off shore, but the forecast for most of the central and northern coasts is for gale force winds beginning late this afternoon and tonight and cotinuing to at least thursday this week.

As a result most of the overnight commercial passenger vessels in the Whitsundays have stood down their operations until the gale force conditions abate and the cyclone is no longer a threat to the coast.

At present, we are experiencing quite a bit of patchy rain and some gusty conditions, but nothing really to speak of.

The beaureau of meterology web site has a wind forecast model on line which can have a guess at the conditions beyond the 3 day forecasts issued by experienced forecasters at the beaureau. This model shows Tropical Cyclone Uili curving towards the south and heading in to and crossing the Queensland coast around Gladstone on saturday night or sunday morning. It should be pointed out though, that cyclones are notoriously unpredictable and it is unlikely that this model will be accurate to any real degree this far in advance.

The beaurea does say though, that they expect cyclone Ului to curve in a southward direction and travel down the Queensland coast. Hopefully for us in the Whitsundays, this will mean a return to good weather sometime around sunday or monday.

As cyclones are very unpredictable and fluid, I will update this article as more information comes available.

More information

Beaureau of Meteorology cyclone track map
Wind forecast model
Latest satellite image